Multimorbidity-Weighted Index

  • Population: Community-dwelling adults aged 54-89 years.
  • Outcome: 4-to-8-year physical functioning decline and 10-year all-cause mortality.
  • Scroll to the bottom for more detailed information.

Risk Calculator
1. What is your patient's biological sex?

2. Does your patient have any of the following diseases?

• Dementia/Alzheimer disease
 
• Stroke
 
• Chronic lung disease (COPD)
 
• Hypertension
 
• Angina
 
• Myocardial infarction
 
• Congestive heart failure
 
• Arrhythmia
 
• Other heart condition
 
• Diabetes
 
• Cancer excluding skin
 
• Arthritis (Osteoarthritis or Rheumatoid)
 
• Knee replacement
 
• Hip replacement
 
• Connective tissue disease (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus, Sjogren's Disease, Dermatomyositis, Polymyositis)
 
• Glaucoma
 
• Chronic kidney disease
 
• Herniated disc
 
• Cirrhosis
 
• PE/DVT
 
• AIDS
 
• Multiple sclerosis
 
• Parkinson's disease
 
• ALS
 
3. Your best guess of 10-year mortality risk?
Total Points: 0

  • This index was developed in national samples of community-dwelling adults from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) I and NHS II, and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). A total of 216,890 participants contributed 612,592 observations of data between 1992-2008. Participants had a mean age of 55 (26% were aged 65 years or older), mean Short Form-36 physical functioning scale of 51 (1 point above US norms), and 94% were white.
  • The index was internally validated by bootstrapping, or resampling with replacement of observations of data from the original sample.
  • The index was externally validated in 20,509 respondents in the nationally-representative Health and Retirement Study in 2010 (mean age 65, 54% women, 78% white).

For men:

  • Discrimination: This risk calculator sorts patients who died from patients who lived correctly 70% of the time (c-statistic).
  • Calibration: The model was well calibrated across all risk levels except those in the bottom 10% risk group, where the observed experienced 20% lower mortality than expected.

For women:

  • Discrimination: This risk calculator sorts patients who died from patients who lived correctly 68% of the time (c-statistic).
  • Calibration: The model was well calibrated across all risk levels except those in the bottom 20% risk group, where the observed experienced 15% lower mortality than expected.
DISCLAIMER

The information provided on ePrognosis is designed to complement, not replace, the relationship between a patient and his/her own medical providers. ePrognosis was created with the support of the Division of Geriatrics at the University of California San Francisco. However, its content is strictly the work of its authors and has no affiliation with any organization or institution. This web site does not accept advertisements. If you reproduce the material on the website please cite appropriately. For feedback and questions regarding the site please email Sei Lee, MD (sei.lee@ucsf.edu), Alex Smith, MD (aksmith@ucsf.edu) or Eric Widera, MD (eric.widera@ucsf.edu).