What is ePrognosis?
Although many geriatric prognostic indices have been published, they may be difficult for busy clinicians to remember and use. Our goal is to be a repository of published geriatric prognostic indices where clinicians can go to obtain evidence-based information on patients' prognosis.
To locate prognostic indices, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, published in JAMA January 11, 2011. Users should refer to this systematic review for detailed information on the accuracy, generalizability, potential for bias, and usability of these indices.
These indices are designed for older adults who do not have a dominant terminal illness. For patients with a dominant terminal illness, such as advanced dementia, cancer, or heart failure, prognostic indices specifically designed for those purposes should be used (see the Links tab).
The information on ePrognosis is intended as a rough guide to inform clinicians about possible mortality outcomes. It is not intended to be the only basis for making care decisions, nor is it intended to be a definitive means of prognostication. Clinicians should keep in mind that every patient is an individual, and that many factors beyond those used in these indices may influence a patient's prognosis.
Alex is a Professor in the Division of Geriatrics at UCSF. With Eric Widera he co-founded GeriPal (blog and podcast). When not learning new songs for the GeriPal podcast he can be found biking around Marin California.
Contact: aksmith@ucsf.edu Twitter: @AlexSmithMD
Eric is a Professor of Medicine in the Division of Geriatrics at UCSF. Eric co-founded GeriPal, a geriatrics and palliative care blog and podcast, with Alex Smith. When not running after his kid, he is searching for the perfect scoop of ice cream.
Twitter: @ewidera
Sei is a Professor in the Division of Geriatrics at UCSF. With Alex Smith, he co-created ePrognosis. His 3 kids all enjoy Calvin and Hobbes, so he's constantly trying to get them to do things they hate so they can build more character.
Contact: Sei.lee@ucsf.edu
Mara is an Associate Professor of Medicine at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) and Harvard Medical School. When not working to help older adults make informed decisions about cancer screening, she enjoys skiing, reading, and socializing with friends and family.
Contact: mschonbe@bidmc.harvard.edu
Nancy is an Associate Professor of Medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. Her research focuses on patient-centered decision making and communication in older adults. She is a proud mom of three who likes to cook and to eat good food.
Contact: nancyli@jhmi.edu
Lindsey is an affiliated Associate Professor at UCSD Division of Geriatrics, Gerontology, and Palliative Care and sees patients as a Geriatrics Attending at the San Diego VA Medical Center. A key catalyst and contributor to ePrognosis since its inception, she is passionate about advancing clinical care, community infrastructure, and public health systems that help all of us to age how and where we want. When she is not running after her daughter, she is running on a trail listening to the GeriPal podcast.
Contact: lyourman@health.ucsd.edu
James is an Assistant Professor in the Division of Geriatrics at UCSF. His research focuses on improving clinical care for older adults at transition points in their lives, such as a skilled nursing facility admission. He enjoys running through San Francisco and playing basketball and tennis.
Contact: william.deardorff@ucsf.edu Twitter: @wjdeardorff
Melissa is an Associate Professor of Medicine at UCLA. Her research addresses multimorbidity (multiple chronic conditions) using person-centered approaches. Outside of work she loves reading, trail running in the Santa Monica Mountains, and discovering new gems in LA.
Contact: mywei@mednet.ucla.edu Twitter: @melissaywei. Instagram: melissawei1
*Eprognosis is strictly the work of its authors and has no affiliation with any government, organization, or institution.
Media Coverage of ePrognosis
- New York Times: The New Old Age "Figuring the Odds." 5/2/2011
- New York Times: The New Old Age "A Lifespan Predictor: The Readers have Spoken." 5/13/2011
- GeriPal "A New Tool for Estimating Prognosis" 5/2/2011
- New York Times: The New Old Age "The Unspoken Diagnosis: Old Age" 12/29/11
- New York Times "Interactive Tools to Assess the Likelihood of Death." 1/10/12
- New York Times: The New Old Age "How Long Until The End?" 1/10/12
- GeriPal "Prognostic Indices for Older Adults: Useful or Waste of Time?" 1/10/12
- KQED Blog "Diagnosis, Treatment, and Maybe a Prognosis!" 1/10/12
- Fox News "Doctors Should Not Rely on Computers to Diagnose Patients 1/11/12
- The Incidental Economist "Assessing Patient Prognosis (ePrognosis)" 1/11/12
- The Daily Beast "Online Mortality Calculator Could Change Health Care and Our Views on Death" 1/15/12
- Pallimed "The Prognostic Frame of Healthcare for Older Adults" 1/16/12
- Hartford Foundation's health AGEnda blog "Should Life Expectancy Affect Treatment" 1/17/12
- The Hastings Center Bioethics Forum "Beware the Ides of March" 1/18/12
- New York Times "Why Doctors Can't Predict How Long A Patient Will Live" 1/19/12
- USA Today "Do Seniors Really Want to Know Life Expectancy?" 2/19/12
- Blog.AARP.org "The Takeaway: Patients Flock to Life Expectancy Website ePrognosis" 2/21/12
- KALW (NPR) "Can Knowing When You Die Help You Live?" 3/1/12
- The Health Care Blog "The ePrognosis App: How Calculating Life Expectancy Can Influence Healthcare Decision-Making" 11/22/13
- SF Gate: "Websites help predict how long you'll live" 4/2/14
- The John Hartford Foundation: "ePrognosis: Communication Features New Teaching Videos" 5/10/16
- Chicago Tribune: "Hey Google, how long will I live? A reporter tests out lifespan calculators." 10/11/18
- Michigan Health: "Living with One Disease Is Hard Enough; Living with Many Can Be Far Worse" 6/21/19
- New York Times: "A Number That Should Guide Your Health Choices (It's Not Your Age)" 7/23/23