What is ePrognosis?
Although many geriatric prognostic indices have been published, they may be difficult for busy clinicians to remember and use. Our goal is to be a repository of published geriatric prognostic indices where clinicians can go to obtain evidence-based information on patients' prognosis.
To locate prognostic indices, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, published in JAMA January 11, 2011. Users should refer to this systematic review for detailed information on the accuracy, generalizability, potential for bias, and usability of these indices.
These indices are designed for older adults who do not have a dominant terminal illness. For patients with a dominant terminal illness, such as advanced dementia, cancer, or heart failure, prognostic indices specifically designed for those purposes should be used (see the Links tab).
The information on ePrognosis is intended as a rough guide to inform clinicians about possible mortality outcomes. It is not intended to be the only basis for making care decisions, nor is it intended to be a definitive means of prognostication. Clinicians should keep in mind that every patient is an individual, and that many factors beyond those used in these indices may influence a patient's prognosis.
Alex is Associate Professor in the Division of Geriatrics at UCSF. With Eric Widera he co-founded GeriPal (blog and podcast). When not learning new songs for the GeriPal podcast he can be found biking around Marin California.
Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org Twitter: @AlexSmithMD
Eric is a Professor of Medicine in the Division of Geriatrics at UCSF. Eric co-founded GeriPal, a geriatrics and palliative care blog and podcast, with Alex Smith. When not running after his kid, he is searching for the perfect scoop of ice cream.
Sei is a Professor in the Division of Geriatrics at UCSF. With Alex Smith, he co-created ePrognosis. His 3 kids all enjoy Calvin and Hobbes, so he's constantly trying to get them to do things they hate so they can build more character.
Mara is an Associate Professor of Medicine at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) and Harvard Medical School. When not working to help older adults make informed decisions about cancer screening, she enjoys skiing, reading, and socializing with friends and family.
Nancy is an Associate Professor of Medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. Her research focuses on patient-centered decision making and communication in older adults. She is a proud mom of three who likes to cook and to eat good food.
Lindsey is an Assistant Clinical Professor at UCSD. She co-founded the West Health-UCSD Geriatrics Quality Improvement Science Fellowship to help decrease the "Know-Do" gap in healthcare for adults older than 65. When not listening to the Geripal podcast, she is running with her Hungarian Puli named Csaba.
Media Coverage of ePrognosis
- New York Times: The New Old Age "Figuring the Odds." 5/2/2011
- New York Times: The New Old Age "A Lifespan Predictor: The Readers have Spoken." 5/13/2011
- GeriPal "A New Tool for Estimating Prognosis" 5/2/2011
- New York Times: The New Old Age "The Unspoken Diagnosis: Old Age" 12/29/11
- New York Times "Interactive Tools to Assess the Likelihood of Death." 1/10/12
- New York Times: The New Old Age "How Long Until The End?" 1/10/12
- GeriPal "Prognostic Indices for Older Adults: Useful or Waste of Time?" 1/10/12
- KQED Blog "Diagnosis, Treatment, and Maybe a Prognosis!" 1/10/12
- Fox News "Doctors Should Not Rely on Computers to Diagnose Patients 1/11/12
- The Incidental Economist "Assessing Patient Prognosis (ePrognosis)" 1/11/12
- The Daily Beast "Online Mortality Calculator Could Change Health Care and Our Views on Death" 1/15/12
- Pallimed "The Prognostic Frame of Healthcare for Older Adults" 1/16/12
- Hartford Foundation's health AGEnda blog "Should Life Expectancy Affect Treatment" 1/17/12
- The Hastings Center Bioethics Forum "Beware the Ides of March" 1/18/12
- New York Times "Why Doctors Can't Predict How Long A Patient Will Live" 1/19/12
- USA Today "Do Seniors Really Want to Know Life Expectancy?" 2/19/12
- Blog.AARP.org "The Takeaway: Patients Flock to Life Expectancy Website ePrognosis" 2/21/12
- KALW (NPR) "Can Knowing When You Die Help You Live?" 3/1/12
- SF Gate: "Websites help predict how long you'll live" 4/2/14
- Chicago Tribune: "Hey Google, how long will I live? A reporter tests out lifespan calculators." 10/11/18
- Michigan Health: "Living with One Disease Is Hard Enough; Living with Many Can Be Far Worse" 6/21/19