• Population: Community dwelling patients aged 65 years and older
• Outcome: All cause 15-month mortality; Hospitalization
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• This index was developed in 2470 (mean age 75, 56% female, 5% 15 month mortality) primary care patients residing in northwestern Florence, Italy in 2003
• The index was internally validated in 2926 patients similar to the development sample, who were residing in southwestern Florence in 2003 (mean age 75, 59% female, 4% 15 month mortality)
• Discrimination: This risk calculator sorts patients who died from patients who lived correctly 75% of the time (c-statistic, 95% CI, 0.73-0.78).
  
• Calibration: The model was well calibrated; however it predicted the narrowest range of mortality with less than 2% difference between estimated and actual mortality rates.
• Citation: Mazzaglia GM, Roti L, Corsini G, Colombini A, Maciocco G, Marchionni N, Buiatti E, Ferrucci L, Di Bari M. Screening of older community-dwelling people at risk for death and hospitalization: The Assistenza Socio-Sanitaria in Italia Project. JAGS. 2007;55:1955-1960.

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