Lee Index

  • Population: Community-dwelling adults aged 50 and over
  • Outcome: All cause 4 and 10 year mortality
  • Scroll to the bottom for more detailed information

Risk Calculator
1. How old is your patient?
2. What is your patient's biological sex?
3. What is your patient's BMI?
4. Does your patient have Diabetes?
5. Has you patient ever had cancer (excluding minor skin cancers)?
6. Does your patient have COPD that limits their usual activities at home?
7. Does your patient have congestive heart failure?
8. Does your patient currently smoke cigarettes?
9. Does your patient have difficulty with bathing or showering without help from other people?
10. Does your patient have difficulty with managing their finances on their own?
11. Does your patient have difficulty walking several blocks?
12. Does your patient have difficulty pulling or pushing large objects such as a living room chair?
Total Points: 0
Your best guess of 4 year mortality risk

  • This index was developed in 11,701 community-dwelling adults from the eastern, western and central United States who were interviewed in the Health Retirement Survey in 1998 (mean age 67, 57% female, 81% white, 12% 4-year mortality)
  • The index was internally validated in 8009 Health Retirement Survey interviewees from the southern United States (mean age 67, 57% female, 71% white, 13% 4-year mortality)
  • Discrimination: This risk calculator sorts patients who died from patients who lived correctly 82% of the time (c-statistic).
  • Calibration: The model was well calibrated across all risk levels with less than 3% difference between estimated and actual mortality rates.
  • Citation: Lee SJ, Lindquist K, Segal MR, Covinsky KE. Development and validation of a prognostic index for 4-year mortality in older adults. JAMA. 2006 Feb 15;295(7):801-8.


The information provided on ePrognosis is designed to complement, not replace, the relationship between a patient and his/her own medical providers. ePrognosis was created with the support of the Division of Geriatrics at the University of California San Francisco. However, its content is strictly the work of its authors and has no affiliation with any organization or institution. This web site does not accept advertisements. If you reproduce the material on the website please cite appropriately. For feedback and questions regarding the site please email Sei Lee, MD (sei.lee@ucsf.edu), Alex Smith, MD (aksmith@ucsf.edu) or Eric Widera, MD (eric.widera@ucsf.edu).