Population: Community-dwelling older adults aged 65 years and older with dementia
Outcomes: All-cause 1, 2, 5, and 10-year mortality
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Discrimination: This risk calculator sorts patients who died earlier from patients who were still alive correctly 76% of the time (as measured by the integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (iAUC) which is a weighted average of the AUC values at all event times). The time-specific AUC values after bootstrap internal validation in the HRS cohort were 0.73 at 1 year, 0.73 at 2 years, 0.75 at 5 years, and 0.84 at 10 years. Upon external validation in NHATS, the time-specific AUC values were 0.73 at 1 year, 0.73 at 2 years, and 0.74 at 5 years.
Calibration: Calibration plots suggested good calibration across the range of predicted risk in both the HRS and NHATS cohorts.
Citation: Deardorff WJ, Barnes DE, Jeon SY, Boscardin WJ, Langa KM, Covinsky KE, Mitchell SL, Whitlock EL, Smith AK, Lee SJ. Development and external validation of a mortality prediction model for community-dwelling older adults with dementia. JAMA Intern Med. 2022;182(11):1161-1170. PMID 36156062.DISCLAIMER
The information provided on ePrognosis is designed to complement, not replace, the relationship between a patient and his/her own medical providers. ePrognosis was created with the support of the Division of Geriatrics at the University of California San Francisco. However, its content is strictly the work of its authors and has no affiliation with any organization or institution. This web site does not accept advertisements. If you reproduce the material on the website please cite appropriately. For feedback and questions regarding the site please email Sei Lee, MD (firstname.lastname@example.org), Alex Smith, MD (email@example.com) or Eric Widera, MD (firstname.lastname@example.org).