Carey 3 Year Index

  • Population: community dwelling nursing home eligible adults aged 55 years and older
  • Outcome: all cause 1- 3 year mortality
  • Scroll to the bottom for more detailed information

Risk Calculator
2. What is the sex of your patient?
3. Does your patient need any assistance from another person in toileting?
5. Does your patient have a history of a malignant neoplasm?
6. Does your patient have congestive heart failure?
7. Does your patient have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease?
8. Does your patient now have renal insufficiency or failure?
Total Points: 0

  • This index was developed in 2232 functionally impaired, nursing home- eligible community dwelling adults living in the western United States, who were enrolled in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE), a senior day care center (mean age 79, 68% female, 40% white, 37% 3-year mortality) from 1988 to 1996
  • The index was internally validated in 1667 PACE participants from eastern and Midwestern United States (mean age 79, 76% female, 65% white, 36% 3-year mortality)
  • Discrimination: This risk calculator sorts patients who died from patients who lived correctly 69% of the time (c-statistic). Accuracy was similar to 1-year mortality
  • Calibration: The model was well calibrated across all risk levels with less than 3% difference between estimated and actual mortality.
  • Citation: Carey EC, Covinsky KE, Li-Yung L, Eng C, Sands LP, Walter LC. Prediction of mortality in community-living frail elderly people with long-term care needs. JAGS. 2008;56(1):68-75.


The information provided on ePrognosis is designed to complement, not replace, the relationship between a patient and his/her own medical providers. ePrognosis was created with the support of the Division of Geriatrics at the University of California San Francisco. However, its content is strictly the work of its authors and has no affiliation with any organization or institution. This web site does not accept advertisements. If you reproduce the material on the website please cite appropriately. For feedback and questions regarding the site please email Sei Lee, MD (, Alex Smith, MD ( or Eric Widera, MD (