ePrognosis - Carey 2 Year Index

Carey 2 Year Index

Risk Calculator

1. How old is your patient?

2. What is your patient's sex?

Female Male

3. Does your patient need help from another person to bathe?

Yes No

4. Does your patient need help from another person to shop for groceries?

5. Does your patient have difficulty walking several blocks?

Yes No

6. Does your patient have difficulty pushing or pulling a heavy object (such as an armchair)?

Yes No

Total Points: 0

The index was developed in 4516 adults from eastern, western and central United States who were interviewed in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) study in 1993 (mean age 78, 61% female, 84% white, 10% mortality)
This index was internally validated in a similar sample of 2877 individuals from southern (mean age 78, 61% female, 73% white, 12% 2-year mortality)
Discrimination: This risk calculator sorts patients who died from patients who lived correctly 74% of the time (c-statistic).
Calibration: The model was well calibrated across all risk levels with less than 10% difference between estimated and actually mortality; however the model predicted only a narrow range of mortality (5-36% risk).
Citation: Carey CE, Walter LC, Lindquist K, Covinsky KE. Development and validation of a functional morbidity index to predict mortality in community-dwelling elders. J Gen Intern Med. 2004:19:1027-33.

DISCLAIMER

The information provided on ePrognosis is designed to complement, not replace, the relationship between a patient and his/her own medical providers. ePrognosis was created with the support of the Division of Geriatrics at the University of California San Francisco. However, its content is strictly the work of its authors and has no affiliation with any organization or institution. This web site does not accept advertisements. If you reproduce the material on the website please cite appropriately. For feedback and questions regarding the site please email Sei Lee, MD (sei.lee@ucsf.edu), Alex Smith, MD (aksmith@ucsf.edu) or Eric Widera, MD (eric.widera@ucsf.edu).