Comprehensive Prognostic Tool for Adults ≥ 70

This comprehensive prognostic tool estimates 5-,10-, and 14-year risk of mortality, incident ADL disability, and incident walking disability for community-dwelling older adults. You must enter at least 14 variables.

Risk Calculator
(Age required)
2. What is your patient’s biological sex?

4. What is your patient’s smoking status?




5. Does your patient live alone?



6. Does your patient have difficulty eating independently?



7. Does your patient have difficulty preparing hot meals?



8. Does your patient have difficulty managing money?



9. Does your patient have difficulty pushing large objects?



10. Does your patient have difficulty walking several blocks?



11. Does your patient have high blood pressure (hypertension)?



12. Does your patient have a history of diabetes?



13. Does your patient have a history of heart disease or other heart problems, such as heart failure?




14. Does your patient have a history of stroke(s)?




15. Does your patient have a history of cancer, other than minor skin cancer?



16. Does your patient have a history of lung disease?





  • The Comprehensive Prognostic Tool was developed in 6646 community-dwelling U.S. adults aged ≥70 years who were interviewed in the Health Retirement Survey in 2000 (mean age 78, 59% female, 86% white).
  • This Tool was internally validated using bootstrapping with the same 6646 participants from the Health and Retirement Study.
  • Discrimination:
    • Mortality: This prognostic tool sorts patients who died from patients who lived correctly 72% of the time (c-statistic).
      72%
    • ADL Disability: This prognostic tool sorts patients who developed ADL disability from patients who did not develop ADL disability 63% of the time (c-statistic).
      63%
    • Walking Disability: This prognostic tool sorts patients who developed walking disability from patients who did not develop walking disability 61% of the time (c-statistic).
      61%
  • Calibration:
    • The mortality model was well calibrated across all risk levels, with less than 7% difference between estimated and actual 10-year mortality rates.
    • The ADL disability model was well calibrated across all risk levels, with less than 6% difference between estimated and actual 10-year ADL disability rates.
    • The walking disability model was well calibrated across all risk levels, with less than 5% difference between estimated and actual 10-year walking disability rates.
  • Citation:
    • Lee AK, Diaz-Ramirez LG, Boscardin WJ, Smith AK, Lee SJ. A Comprehensive Prognostic Tool for Older Adults: Predicting Death, ADL Disability, and Walking Disability Simultaneously. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. DOI: 10.1111/jgs.17932
DISCLAIMER

The information provided on ePrognosis is designed to complement, not replace, the relationship between a patient and his/her own medical providers. ePrognosis was created with the support of the Division of Geriatrics at the University of California San Francisco. However, its content is strictly the work of its authors and has no affiliation with any organization or institution. This web site does not accept advertisements. If you reproduce the material on the website please cite appropriately. For feedback and questions regarding the site please email Sei Lee, MD (sei.lee@ucsf.edu), Alex Smith, MD (aksmith@ucsf.edu) or Eric Widera, MD (eric.widera@ucsf.edu).