• This 10 year-mortality prediction model was developed and validated using data from 5 longitudinal studies of community-dwelling adults: ELSA (English Longitudinal Study of Aging), HRS (Health and Retirement Study), MHAS (Mexican Health and Aging Study), SABE-Sao Paulo (The Health, Well-being and Aging), and SHARE (Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe)
• The model was developed using an individual participant data meta-analysis in 23,615 participants from 16 countries (mean age 70 years old, 46% male, 51% white, 24% 10-year mortality). Model validation was performed in 11,752 participants.
• Discrimination: The mortality prediction model sorts participants who died from those who lived correctly 76% if the time (Harrell's C).
  
• Calibration: The model had good calibration across all risk levels with less than 7% difference between estimated and observed mortality rates.
• Citation: Suemoto CK, Ueda P, Beltrán-Sánchez, Lebrão ML, Duarte YA, Wong R, Danaei G. Development and Validation of a 10-Year Mortality Prediction Model: Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data From Five Cohorts of Older Adults in Developed and Developing Countries. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2016 Aug 13. pii: glw166. [Epub ahead of print]

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